Recently, I was asked to look
at the recent events through the lens of military history. I
have joined the cast of thousands who have written an "open
letter to Americans."
Dear friends and fellow Americans 14
September, 2001
Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from
the attack on September 11, 2001 on our sovereignty in New
York and Washington, D.C. But unlike some, I am not reeling
from surprise.
As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military
history, I have a different perspective and I think you
should hear it. This war will be won or lost by the American
citizens, not diplomats, politicians or soldiers.
Let me briefly explain. In spite of what the media, and even
our own government is telling us, this act was not committed
by a group of mentally deranged fanatics. To dismiss them as
such would be among the gravest of mistakes. This attack was
committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated
adversary.
Don't take this the wrong way. I don't admire these men and
I deplore their tactics, but I respect their capabilities.
The many parallels that have been made with the Japanese
attack on Pearl Harbor are apropos. Not only because it was
a brilliant sneak attack against a complacent America, but
also because we may well be pulling our new adversaries out
of caves 30 years after we think this war is over, just like
my father's generation had to do with the formidable
Japanese in the years following WW II.
These men hate the United States with all of their being,
and we must not underestimate the power of their moral
commitment. Napoleon, perhaps the world's greatest
combination of soldier and statesman, stated "the moral is
to the physical as three is to one."
Patton thought the Frenchman underestimated its importance
and said moral conviction was five times more important in
battle than physical strength.
Our enemies are willing - better said anxious -- to give
their lives for their cause. How committed are we America?
And for how long?
In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the
recent attack demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic
fundamentals of warfare taught to most military officers
worldwide, namely simplicity, security and surprise.
When I first heard rumors that some of these men may have
been trained at our own Air War College, it made perfect
sense to me. This was not a random act of violence, and we
can expect the same sort of military competence to be
displayed in the battle to come. This war will escalate,
with a good portion of it happening right here in the good
ol' U.S. of A.
These men will not go easily into the night. They do not
fear us. We must not fear them. In spite of our overwhelming
conventional strength as the world's only "superpower" (a
truly silly term), we are the underdog in this fight. As you
listen to the carefully scripted rhetoric designed to
prepare us for the march for war, please realize that
America is not equipped or seriously trained for the battle
ahead. To be certain, our soldiers are much better than the
enemy, and we have some excellent "counter-terrorist"
organizations, but they are mostly trained for hostage
rescues, airfield seizures, or the occasional "body snatch,"
(which may come in handy).
We will be fighting a war of annihilation, because if their
early efforts are any indication, our enemy is ready and
willing to die to the last man. Eradicating the enemy will
be costly and time consuming. They have already deployed
their forces in as many as 20 countries, and are likely
living the lives of everyday citizens. Simply put, our
soldiers will be tasked with a search and destroy mission on
multiple foreign landscapes, and the public must be patient
and supportive until the strategy and tactics can be worked
out.
For the most part, our military is still in the process of
redefining itself and presided over by men and women who
grew up with - and were promoted because they excelled in -
Cold War doctrine, strategy and tactics. This will not be
linear warfare, there will be no clear "centers of gravity"
to strike with high technology weapons. Our vast
technological edge will certainly be helpful, but it will
not be decisive. Perhaps the perfect metaphor for the coming
battle was introduced by the terrorists themselves aboard
the hijacked aircraft -- this will be a knife fight, and it
will be won or lost by the ingenuity and will of citizens
and soldiers, not by software or smart bombs. We must also
be patient with our military leaders.
Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind
us, our adversaries have time on their side, and they will
use it. They plan to fight a battle of attrition, hoping to
drag the battle out until the American public loses its will
to fight. This might be difficult to believe in this
euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is
generally acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a
long fight.
We need only look as far back as Vietnam, when North
Vietnamese General Vo Nguyen Giap (also a military history
teacher) defeated the United States of America without ever
winning a major tactical battle. American soldiers who
marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans in 1965
were reviled and spat upon less than three years later when
they returned.
Although we hope that Usama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is
certain to understand and employ the concept. We can expect
not only large doses of pain like the recent attacks, but!
also less audacious "sand in the gears" tactics, ranging
from livestock infestations to attacks at water supplies and
power distribution facilities.
These attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone"
forcing the average American to "pay more and play less" and
eventually eroding our resolve. But it can only work if we
let it. It is clear to me that the will of the American
citizenry - you and I - is the center of gravity the enemy
has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which victory or
defeat will turn.
He believes us to be soft, impatient, and self-centered. He
may be right, but if so, we must change. The Prussian
general Carl von Clausewitz, (the most often quoted and
least read military theorist in history), says that there is
a "remarkable trinity of war" that is composed of the
will of the people,
the political leadership
of the government, and
the chance and probability that
plays out on the field of battle, in that order.
Every American citizen was in the crosshairs of last
Tuesday's attack, not just those that were unfortunate
enough to be in the World Trade Center or Pentagon. The will
of the American people will decide this war. If we are to
win, it will be because we have what it takes to persevere
through a few more hits, learn from our! mistakes,
improvise, and adapt.If we can do that, we will eventually
prevail.
Everyone I've talked to In the past few days has shared a
common frustration, saying in one form or another "I just
wish I could do something!" You are already doing it. Just
keep faith in America, and continue to support your
President and military, and the outcome is certain.
If we fail to do so, the outcome is equally certain.
God Bless America
Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret) Former Director of
Military History, USAF
